Characterizing human collective behaviours of COVID-19 in Hong Kong (preprint)

People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb COVID-19 epidemic waves since the first COVID-19 case was confirmed on 22 January 2020. People are likely to engage in collective behaviour online during extreme events, such as the COVID-19 crisis, to express their awareness, actions and concerns. Here, we offer a framework to evaluate interactions among individuals emotions, perception, and online behaviours in Hong Kong during the first two waves (February to June 2020) and found a strong correlation between online behaviours of Google search and the real-time reproduction numbers. To validate the model output of risk perception, we conducted 10 rounds of cross-sectional telephone surveys from February 1 through June 20 in 2020 to quantify risk perception levels over time. Compared with the survey results, the estimates of the risk perception of individuals using our network-based mechanistic model capture 80% of the trend of people risk perception (individuals who worried about being infected) during the studied period. We may need to reinvigorate the public by engaging people as part of the solution to live their lives with reduced risk.

Ostavimir is ineffective against COVID-19: in silico assessment, in vitro and retrospective study (preprint)

As a neuraminidase inhibitor, oseltamivir has effectively combated the pandemic influenza A and B, so it is a first-line commonly used antiviral drug, especially in primary hospitals. At the same time, oseltamivir, as an over-the-counter drug, is also a popular antiviral drug. As healthcare workers fighting against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we have found that many patients experiencing discomfort or considered to be infected with a virus take oseltamivir. From severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 to middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, and now the current COVID-19 epidemic, there is not plenty of evidence showing that oseltamivir is effective against coronavirus. Still, there is also no sufficient evidence to refute its ineffectiveness. We cannot predict whether there will be a pandemic of respiratory coronavirus in the future, so we hope to initiate such research and preliminarily explore whether oseltamivir is effective for COVID-19, which can better guide healthcare workers in the selection of appropriate antiviral drugs in the face of coronavirus epidemics. If oseltamivir is effective, then a wide promotion of its application often can achieve a double effect with half the effort. If it is not effective, then considering the side effects of oseltamivir, it is not necessary to use unreasonable drugs that will not slow the progression of the disease but can cause adverse reactions. We found that oseltamivir is not suitable for fighting against COVID-19 through the method of computer aided drug design and in vitro study and retrospective case study. Meanwhile it was high-occurrence seasons for the influenza, COVID-19 should be highly suspected in patients who did not benefit from oseltamivir. We hope that the result of our study could be shared with the frontline physicians in fighting against COVID-19.

The demand for inpatient and ICU beds for COVID-19 in the US: lessons from Chinese cities (preprint)

Background: Sustained spread of SARS-CoV-2 has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in Chinese cities could inform the planning of local healthcare resources. Methods: We described the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for confirmed COVID-19 patients in two Chinese cities (Wuhan and Guangzhou) from January 10 to February 29, 2020, and compared the timing of disease control measures in relation to the timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread. We estimated the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if a Wuhan-like outbreak occurs. Results: In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented six weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, COVID-19 patients accounted for an average of 637 ICU patients and 3,454 serious inpatients on each day. During the epidemic peak, 19,425 patients (24.5 per 10,000 adults) were hospitalized, 9,689 (12.2 per 10,000 adults) were considered to be in serious condition, and 2,087 patients (2.6 per 10,000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within one week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for an average of 9 ICU patients and 20 inpatients on each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition, and 38 were classified as serious. If a Wuhan-like outbreak were to happen in a US city, the need for healthcare resources may be higher in cities with a higher prevalence of vulnerable populations. Conclusion: Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of seriously ill COVID-19 patients continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the effect of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local healthcare system in US cities.